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Peter Steinberger
1d2d44c8ff
`agentic-agents-core-models` carried the 36s scaled estimate while measuring 56.3s (n=6, p90 58.6s) across 260 compact jobs on 2026-08-16. Packed beside `agentic-agents-core-runtime-hosted-1` (60.4s) it built the only bin running >=1.25x its prediction: compact-large-19 ran 122s of work priced at 88s, which made it the most frequent slowest job in the workflow. Add the measured value to the hybrid hint map, which already exists for exactly these Blacksmith-specific observations. The packer then separates the two, and the tallest actual compact bin drops 122s -> 109s with no bin above 1.25x and no change to row counts (48 push / 56 pull-request), so this costs no extra runner registrations. Two things deliberately left alone. The `agentic-gateway-core-3` 140s pin looks like a 2x over-prediction against its 68.5s median, but run 31938297538 really did take 138.0s (109.03s + 28.98s across its two configs) on a run whose fleet slowdown factor was 0.98 -- a genuine tail on a healthy run, so unpinning it would rebuild a >200s bin whenever the tail lands. Every other bin already sits within 1.24x of its prediction. The replaced guard pinned one bin arrangement (`runtime-hosted-1` not sharing a job with `agents-core-tools`) with no stated failure mode, so any honest refit broke it. It now asserts the property that comment was reaching for -- both weight sources survive rebalancing under the body ceiling -- plus the specific regression this fixes. Mutation-checked: dropping the hint fails the new guard. Measurement note for the next refit: sum a shard's per-config Duration lines before taking a median. Pooling them reads as a large over-prediction that is not there.